A new report released today forecasts that crashing out of the EU could cost the UK’s farming industry £850m a year in lost income.
The Andersons Centre, which provides business, research and economic advice for farmers, found that the potential impact of Brexit would leave some farms struggling to survive unless government support increased significantly.
The author of the research issued a stark warning when he described the challenges posed by a no-deal Brexit as greater than the BSE and foot-and-mouth crises.
Under a no-deal Brexit, farmers would have to pay tariffs on produce exported to the EU for the first time, with beef and lamb likely to be the most affected.
In such a scenario, it is speculated that European consumers will rapidly switch to suppliers from other countries rather than paying more for British meat.
The report forecast “substantial declines” for sheepmeat (falling by 31%), whilst output for cereals, milk and beef production would also down.
Across the sector as a whole farming income would drop by 18% (approximately £850million) as a result of a no-deal Brexit. Even with trade deal in place with the EU, the report estimated that income would drop by 3%.
Some increases are projected for horticulture and intensive livestock (pigs and poultry), which makes up a significant proportion of the East of England’s agricultural output.
However, the report notes that its conclusions are based on the assumption that “there is sufficient labour available for undertaking operations”, which the one of the region’s MEPs, Catherine Rowett, has questioned.
Green Party MEP, Catherine Rowett, who represents the East of England said:
“Given how many workers come to the UK from the EU to work in the agricultural sector, either seasonally or more permanently, it is unlikely that farming output from this region will remain unaffected by crashing out of the EU.”
She continued:
“British farming is likely to feel the brunt of Brexit and will be one of the most worst affected sectors, especially if we crash out without a deal. It is a gross failure of this government not to provide answers to the very real questions farmers are asking about what the future of British agriculture will look like.
“I fear a scenario where farms go out of business through no fault of their own or farmers are forced to adopt much lower standards of animal husbandry simply to survive. I and my Green Party colleagues in European Parliament have made it clear that we would like to see major reform of the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy, but we feel strongly that it is in the best interests of British farmers that we stay in the EU, something which today’s report seems to confirm.”